On the Probably-not-Forthcoming Civil War

In this time of turmoil, there have been three numbers and a hypothetical scenario that have comforted me greatly.

First: The  number of Jews in the Weimar Republic: less than 1%.

Second: The number of troops (Iraqi army, militia, and Peshmerga) being arrayed against the city of Mosul: 100,000.

Third: The number of ISIS fighters expected within Mosul: 5,000.

The hypothetical scenario is that of a  Colonel in command of a Brigade Combat Team, assigned with a backup force of 10,000 Trump Troops (militia raised from Trump supporters), facing the assignment to “pacify Oakland”. Whose first request, I suspect, would be a transfer to somewhere like Guam, as preferable to this fecal sandwich of an assignment — a true no-win.

Those are the numbers as to why I don’t think, right now, we’ll have a civil war. There aren’t enough troops in the U.S. Army, even if they *were* deployed domestically, even if they *were* backed up by a raised militia, even if they *were* willing to obey orders and fire on their own citizens, to win such a war.

And if there’s one thing that armies really don’t like doing, it’s starting wars they know they’re going to lose.

One of the reasons that Hitler was able to do what he did was that (even granting the addition of Romany and Jehovah’s Witnesses) he was targeting 1-2% of the population, who were, outside of perhaps a few city blocks (if that) nowhere in the majority. They were always outnumbered, always surrounded, and did not realize what could happen.

The alt-right now has to contend with  a population that is 30% targeted groups, and where those groups are frequently in the majority, often the overwhelming majority — including, for example, in the nations’ capitol.

This is not to say that the next four years won’t suck; this is not to say that there might not be significant civil violence — indeed, shortly I intend to write about what my personal warning bells are, for when it’s time to either evacuate or start preparing our own self-defence militias in earnest — but I do not believe that we are headed for an American Holocaust; the numbers simply do not add up.

 

 

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